Carbon neutrality assessment under uncertainty
Options for achieving carbon neutrality in Chile. An assessment under uncertainty.
The Chilean government proposed to reach the carbon neutrality target of greenhouse gases (GHG) by 2050 in its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC), which the country communicated to the international community in the framework of the Paris Agreement.
This project aimed to develop a computational tool to evaluate the carbon neutrality target considering an uncertainty analysis and perform a risk analysis applying the Robust Decision Making methodology. The work estimates the sectoral transformations required to meet emission reduction targets under a wide range of economic, environmental and technological scenarios. It identifies the conditions that put the emission reduction targets at risk. Then, proposals are developed for expansion of measures to be considered in future sectoral plans that mitigate the identified vulnerabilities. This includes strengthening existing mitigation measures and adding additional actions. The measures evaluated include the accelerated retirement of coal-fired power plants, the retirement of natural gas-fired power plants, increased participation of electromobility, increased participation of public transportation, non-motorized modes, teleworking, among other measures.
The Energy Center was in charge of developing the energy supply and demand and greenhouse gas emission projection models for the electricity generation, industry, mining, transportation, commerce, public and residential sectors. During the development of the project, thousands of energy matrix and greenhouse gas emissions projection scenarios were evaluated.
The project was financed by the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) and is available at the following link: https://publications.iadb.org/es/opciones-para-lograr-la-carbono-neutralidad-en-chile-una-evaluacion-bajo-incertidumbre
For more information on this development please send an email to contacto@centroenergía.cl
Carbon neutrality assessment under uncertainty
Options for achieving carbon neutrality in Chile. An assessment under uncertainty.
The Chilean government proposed to reach the carbon neutrality target of greenhouse gases (GHG) by 2050 in its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC), which the country communicated to the international community in the framework of the Paris Agreement.
This project aimed to develop a computational tool to evaluate the carbon neutrality target considering an uncertainty analysis and perform a risk analysis applying the Robust Decision Making methodology. The work estimates the sectoral transformations required to meet emission reduction targets under a wide range of economic, environmental and technological scenarios. It identifies the conditions that put the emission reduction targets at risk. Then, proposals are developed for expansion of measures to be considered in future sectoral plans that mitigate the identified vulnerabilities. This includes strengthening existing mitigation measures and adding additional actions. The measures evaluated include the accelerated retirement of coal-fired power plants, the retirement of natural gas-fired power plants, increased participation of electromobility, increased participation of public transportation, non-motorized modes, teleworking, among other measures.
The Energy Center was in charge of developing the energy supply and demand and greenhouse gas emission projection models for the electricity generation, industry, mining, transportation, commerce, public and residential sectors. During the development of the project, thousands of energy matrix and greenhouse gas emissions projection scenarios were evaluated.
The project was financed by the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) and is available at the following link: https://publications.iadb.org/es/opciones-para-lograr-la-carbono-neutralidad-en-chile-una-evaluacion-bajo-incertidumbre
For more information on this development please send an email to contacto@centroenergía.cl